This year’s winter will be warmer than usual, with lower-than-normal rainfall, according to the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM).
Taking into account average normal temperature and rainfall from 1991 to 2020, the department on Tuesday released forecast bulletin for three months until March 27, 2023.
According to the bulletin, Taplejung, Panchthar, Terathum, Illam, Jhapa, Morang and Sunsari have a 45 to 55 per cent probability of receiving lower rainfall than normal.
The department has also predicted similar weather conditions for Parsa, Bara, Rautahat districts of Madhesh Province, Kavrepalanchowk, Kathmandu Valley, Nuwakot, Makawanpur of Bagmati Province, Kaski, Syanga, Parbat and southern parts of Gandaki Province.
Most parts of Lumbini Province, Darchula, Doti, Kanchanpur, Kailali, and Dadeldhura are also projected under the same 45 to 55 per cent chance to receive lower than normal rainfall.
While Bajhang and Bajura of Sudurpashchim Province, Humla, Mugu and northern Dolpa and all remaining parts of the country have 35 to 45 per cent chances to receive lower rainfall, according to the department.
The DHM has said almost all parts of Nepal have a probability of higher than normal maximum 24-hour temperatures.
Humla, western Mugu and Bajura districts have 55 to 65 per cent chances of higher maximum temperatures, while the rest of the country has a 35 to 55 per cent probability of higher maximum temperatures.
The central and mid-western parts of the country have 45 to 55 while the rest parts have a 35 to 45 per cent probability of higher temperatures, as the bulletin shows.
The bulletin is based on weather predictions made by World Meteorological Organisation and South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, the department said.
However, it has assessed El Nino and Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole, the periodic change in winds over Eastern Pacific which has effects on the weather of Nepal.